爱因斯坦的研究人员得出结论,人类的寿命已经达到了极限

Maximum Human Lifespan Has Already Been Reached, Einstein Researchers Conclude

 

 

2016105——(纽约布朗克斯区)——阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦医学院的科学家们今天在《自然》杂志上发表了一项研究,他们认为人类寿命不可能超过有记录以来最长寿的人的寿命。

 

由阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦医学院的Jan Vijg博士领导的研究人员在《自然》杂志上发表了一项研究,得出的结论是,人类已经达到了可能的最大年龄——125——而且医学上的进步不太可能进一步延长这一年龄。

 

 

Jan Vijg博士,自19世纪以来,由于公共卫生、饮食、环境和其他方面的改善,平均预期寿命几乎一直在增长。例如,今天出生的美国婴儿平均预期寿命接近79岁,而1900年出生的美国人平均预期寿命只有47岁。自20世纪70年代以来,寿命最长的人——最长寿的人——的寿命也在增加。但根据爱因斯坦的研究人员的说法,这条通往最大寿命的向上弧线有一个天花板——我们已经触碰到了它。

 

“人口统计学家和生物学家认为没有理由认为最大寿命持续增长将很快结束,”Jan Vijg资深作者说,博士,教授,椅子的遗传学,萝拉和扫罗克雷默椅子在分子遗传学,和爱因斯坦的眼科及视觉科学教授。但我们的数据强烈表明,这一目标已经实现,而且这种情况发生在上世纪90年代。

 

Vijg博士和他的同事分析了人类死亡率数据库的数据,该数据库汇集了40多个国家的死亡率和人口数据。自1900年以来,这些国家的晚期死亡率通常呈下降趋势:每个出生队列的比例(:随着出生年份的增加,活到老年(定义为70岁以上)的人的平均预期寿命将继续增加。

但是,当研究人员从1900年开始对100岁及以上的人进行生存改善时,他们发现生存的增长在大约100岁时达到顶峰,然后迅速下降,不管人们出生的年份。Vijg博士说:“这一发现表明,在降低晚年死亡率和可能限制人类寿命方面取得的进展正在减少。

 

“人口统计学家和生物学家都认为,没有理由认为目前最长寿命的延长将很快结束,但我们的数据强烈表明,它已经实现了,而这发生在上世纪90年代。

——1Vijg博士。

 

然后,他和他的同事研究了来自国际长寿数据库的“死亡最大报告年龄”数据。他们关注的是在1968年至2006年这四个国家(美国)被证实活到110岁或以上的人美国、法国、日本和英国的长寿人数最多。从20世纪70年代到90年代早期,这些超级百岁老人的死亡年龄迅速增长,但在1995年左右达到了一个平稳期——这进一步证明了寿命的限制。研究人员指出,这一高原期发生在1997年附近,即法国女性Jeanne Calment去世的那一年。

 

根据最大死亡年龄报告数据,爱因斯坦的研究人员将人类的平均最大寿命定为125——这一计算结果允许年龄最大的人偶尔活得更长或更短。(他们得出的结论是,Jeanne Calment是一个统计上的局外人。)最后,研究人员计算出,在给定的一年里,在世界上任何地方看到一个人活到125岁的概率都小于万分之一。

 

“进一步防治传染病和慢性疾病的进展可能会继续提高平均预期寿命,但不是最大寿命,”维吉说。“尽管我们可以想象,治疗上的突破可能会延长人类寿命,超出我们所计算的极限,但这种进步将需要压倒似乎共同决定人类寿命的许多基因变体。”也许现在用于延长寿命的资源应该用来延长健康期——在健康状态下度过的老年期

 

《自然》杂志的标题是“人类寿命极限的证据”。论文的共同作者是肖东博士和布兰登·米荷兰博士,他们都在爱因斯坦大学。这项研究得到了美国国立卫生研究院AG017242AG047200、阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦医学院老年医学研究所/内森休克中心和阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦医学院的保罗·f·格伦人类衰老生物学中心的支持。

 

 

 

Maximum Human Lifespan Has Already Been Reached, Einstein Researchers Conclude

 

October 5, 2016—(BRONX, NY)—A study published online today in Nature by Albert Einstein College of Medicine scientists suggests that it may not be possible to extend the human life span beyond the ages already attained by the oldest people on record.

Researchers, led by Jan Vijg, Ph.D., at Albert Einstein College of Medicine have published a study in Nature that concludes humans have already attained what is likely their maximum age – 115 years – and that medical advances are unlikely to extend it further.

Jan Vijg, Ph.D.Since the 19th century, average life expectancy has risen almost continuously thanks to improvements in public health, diet, the environment and other areas. On average, for example, U.S. babies born today can expect to live nearly until age 79 compared with an average life expectancy of only 47 for Americans born in 1900. Since the 1970s, the maximum duration of life—the age to which the oldest people live—has also risen. But according to the Einstein researchers, this upward arc for maximal lifespan has a ceiling—and we’ve already touched it.

Demographers as well as biologists have contended there is no reason to think that the ongoing increase in maximum lifespan will end soon,” said senior author Jan Vijg, Ph.D., professor and chair of genetics, the Lola and Saul Kramer Chair in Molecular Genetics, and professor of ophthalmology & visual sciences at Einstein. “But our data strongly suggest that it has already been attained and that this happened in the 1990s.”

Dr. Vijg and his colleagues analyzed data from the Human Mortality Database, which compiles mortality and population data from more than 40 countries. Since 1900, those countries generally show a decline in late-life mortality: The fraction of each birth cohort (i.e., people born in a particular year) who survive to old age (defined as 70 and up) increased with their calendar year of birth, pointing toward a continuing increase in average life expectancy.

But when the researchers looked at survival improvements since 1900 for people aged 100 and above, they found that gains in survival peaked at around 100 and then declined rapidly, regardless of the year people were born. “This finding indicates diminishing gains in reducing late-life mortality and a possible limit to human lifespan,” said Dr. Vijg.

Demographers as well as biologists have contended there is no reason to think that the ongoing increase in maximum lifespan will end soon, but our data strongly suggest that it has already been attained and that this happened in the 1990s.”

Jan Vijg, Ph.D.

He and his colleagues then looked at “maximum reported age at death” data from the International Database on Longevity. They focused on people verified as living to age 110 or older between 1968 and 2006 in the four countries (the U.S., France, Japan and the U.K.) with the largest number of long-lived individuals. Age at death for these supercentenarians increased rapidly between the 1970s and early 1990s but reached a plateau around 1995—further evidence for a lifespan limit. This plateau, the researchers note, occurred close to 1997—the year of death of 122-year-old French woman Jeanne Calment, who achieved the maximum documented lifespan of any person in history.

Using maximum-reported-age-at-death data, the Einstein researchers put the average maximum human life span at 115 years—a calculation allowing for record-oldest individuals occasionally living longer or shorter than 115 years. (Jeanne Calment, they concluded, was a statistical outlier.) Finally, the researchers calculated that the probability in a given year of seeing one person live to 125 anywhere in the world is less than 1 in 10,000.

Further progress against infectious and chronic diseases may continue boosting average life expectancy, but not maximum lifespan,” said Dr. Vijg. “While it’s conceivable that therapeutic breakthroughs might extend human longevity beyond the limits we’ve calculated, such advances would need to overwhelm the many genetic variants that appear to collectively determine the human lifespan. Perhaps resources now being spent to increase lifespan should instead go to lengthening healthspan—the duration of old age spent in good health.”

The Nature paper is titled “Evidence for a Limit to Human Lifespan.” The co-lead authors of the paper are Xiao Dong, Ph.D., and Brandon Milholland, Ph.D., both at Einstein. The study was supported by National Institutes of Health grants AG017242 and AG047200, the Albert Einstein College of Medicine Institute for Aging Research/Nathan Shock Center and the Paul F. Glenn Center for the Biology of Human Aging at Albert Einstein College of Medicine.

 

Maximum Human Lifespan Has Already Been Reached, Einstein Researchers Conclude | Albert Einstein College of Medicine  http://www.einstein.yu.edu/news/releases/1200/maximum-human-lifespan-has-already-been-reached-einstein-researchers-conclude/